In todays video we learn about Value at Risk (VaR) and how is it calculated?
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What Is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Value at risk (VaR) is a calculation that aims to quantify the level of financial risk within a firm, portfolio or position over a specific time frame. This metric is most commonly used by investment and commercial banks to determine the extent and occurrence ratio of potential losses in their institutional portfolios.
Risk managers use VaR to measure and control the level of risk exposure. One can apply VaR calculations to specific positions or whole portfolios or to measure firm-wide risk exposure.
VaR modeling aims to calculate the potential for loss in the portfolio being assessed and the probability of occurrence for the defined loss. One measures VaR by assessing the amount of potential loss, the probability of occurrence for the amount of loss, and the timeframe involved.
A VaR calculation based on data from a period of low volatility may understate the potential for risk events to occur and the magnitude of those events. Risk may be further understated using normal distribution probabilities, which rarely account for extreme or black-swan events.
The financial crisis of 2008 exposed many of the problems with VaR as relatively benign VaR calculations understated the potential occurrence of loss events posed by portfolios of subprime mortgages. Risk was underestimated, which resulted in extreme leverage ratios within subprime portfolios. As a result, the underestimations of occurrence and risk magnitude left institutions unable to cover billions of dollars in losses as subprime mortgage values collapsed.
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