This video is an engaging animation that briefly describes the scientific paper 'Exploring the future of fisheries conflict through narrative scenarios'
Recent studies suggest that the pervasive impacts on global fishery resources caused by stressors such as overfishing and climate change could dramatically increase the likelihood of fisheries conflict. However, existing projections do not consider wider economic, social and political trends when assessing the likelihood of, and influences on, future conflict trajectories. In this paper, we build four future fisheries conflict scenarios by considering multiple fishery conflict drivers derived from an expert workshop, a longitudinal database of international fisheries conflict, secondary data on conflict driver trends and regional expert reviews. The scenarios take place between the years 2030 to 2060 in the North-East Atlantic (“Scramble for the Atlantic”), the East China Sea (“The Remodeled Empire”), the coast of West Africa (“Oceanic Decolonization”), and the Arctic (“Polar Renaissance”). The scenarios explore the implications of ongoing trends in conflict-prone regions of the world, and function as accessible, science-based communication tools that can help foster anticipatory governance capacity in the pursuit of future ocean security.
