Description:
While systems like tanks, jets and cruise missiles tend to capture the public imagination, the war in Ukraine in 2023 is largely being fought with much the same tools as it was in 2022 - artillery.
The constant exchange of fire has been critical to the battle, enabling attrition, blunting attacks and enabling advances. Both sides have continued to adapt, trying to refine their tactics and capabilities while wearing down their opponent.
But in this attritional struggle, losses and resupply of systems, barrels and ammunition matter, not just tactics. Ukraine now finds itself in an ammunition deficit - trying to attack at a time where its allies have not yet ramped up production enough to readily meet its needs.
It's in that context that the US recently announced the supply of cluster munitions to refill Ukraine's ammunition bunkers. Today we look at those munitions, their likely impact, as well as the broader course of the artillery war in Ukraine one year on from my original video on the topic "outgunned"
Patreon:
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Caveats and comments:
historical data is limited less by the fog of war and more by the quality and limitations of the study in question (as with the CM figures from Vietnam)
Regarding cluster munitions - I have tried to give a frank evaluation of the current regulations and their potential application - but must note that this does not in itself represent an endorsement of the production, transfer or employment of these munitions in contravention of the CCM
All usual caveats - including the content's intended role as entertainment and all statements coming with an * serving interchangeably as "reportedly" "allegedly" or similar
Relevant Reading:
Covert Cabal counting RUssian artillery
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RUSI - Russian tactics in the second year
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Armament Research, Development & Engineering Centre - Picatinny Arsenal
The evolution of Artillery for increased effectiveness
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RUSI on cluster munitions
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GAO artillery inventory NSIAD-95-89
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US army ammunition procurment justification book - FY2020
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Official Russian economic statistics
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Jamestown Foundation on Russian arms manufacturing:
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National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine
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Reporting on DPICM to Ukraine
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German ammunition production for Ukraine reporting
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British estimate on Russian ammunition expenditure
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Reporting on ammunition shortages and expenditures
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Reporting on claimed Iranian ammunition going to Russia
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Removal of General Popov
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Russia rocket technical
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Ukrainian 203mm firing US made rounds
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Timestamps:
00:00:00 — The Artillery War In Ukraine — 2023
00:01:48 — What Am I Talking About?
00:02:25 — The Decisive Weapon
00:08:01 — Changing Tools & Tactics
00:13:14 — Losses & Trends
00:24:35 — Ammo Consumption
00:32:17 — Cluster Munitions & The Debate
00:50:14 — Russian artillery sustainability
00:59:00 — NATO+
01:08:34 — Next Steps
01:11:42 — Conclusions
01:12:58 — Channel Update
