RSS Highlands Local Group
Speaker:
Nan van Geloven, Assistant Professor, Biostatistics, Leiden University Medical Center.
Currently, in the development of prediction models ad hoc approaches are used for patients who start a treatment. Patients may for instance be excluded or censored or the treatments are ignored. Consequences of such analysis choices on the interpretation of the calculated risks are typically neglected which may lead to wrongly interpreted risks. In particular, risks may not provide the input to treatment decisions they are expected to give. In this talk, Nan proposes 'predictimand' framework to deal with treatment in clinical prediction models. Analogous to the ICH estimand guideline for clinical trials, the ‘predictimand' framework is comprised of different questions that may be of interest when predicting risk in relation to treatment started after baseline. Nan provides definitions of the estimands matching these questions, giving examples of settings in which each is useful.
