The coup in Gabon may have brought an end to the reign of Ali Bongo’s immediate family, but analysts say it’s still about the elite preserving itself.
The ousting of President Ali Bongo Ondimba this week seemed to mark a spectacular end to the nearly 56-year dynastic rule of the Bongo family.
What began in 1967 with the father, Omar Bongo who ruled for nearly 42 years before Bongo took over for another 14 years – ended when the military seized power on Wednesday. The military said it was because the August 26 presidential election, which Bongo won for the third time in a row, was not credible and that the country faced a “severe institutional” crisis.
But the military government’s new leader, General Brice Clothaire Oligui Nguema, is Bongo’s own cousin and commander-in-chief of the Gabonese Republican Guard – the country’s most powerful security force.
Francois Conradie, a political analyst at Oxford Economics, noted that the events unfolding might be the result of internal tensions among Gabon’s elites and extended Bongo family members.
“There are a lot of reasons to think that the coup was the wider elite in Gabon preserving itself by getting rid of the very narrow elite made up of Ali Bongo, his son Noureddin and his wife Sylvia,” he said.
Upon the announcement of the electoral results, Gabon’s electoral body said Bongo had won by 64 percent; his main rival Albert Ondo Ossa won 30 percent.
Gabonese “were going to protest for a recount of the votes and make so much noise and international focus”, Conradie explained, saying that Nguema understood this.
The general came up through the ranks of Bongo’s inner circle, and some experts believe the power grab was an attempt to thwart public protest plans that were brewing in support of Ossa.
Gen. Brice Clothaire Oligui Nguema, took the oath in the presidential palace in front of a packed, boisterous room of government officials, military and local leaders in Gabon's capital, Libreville.
“Is this coup really marking the end of the Bongo dynasty or are we just seeing the latest rivalry between different factions of the Bongo family?” questioned Maja Bovcon, a senior Africa analyst at consultancy firm Verisk Maplecroft. The speedy swearing-in of Oligui will create perceptions of legitimacy and consolidate his power to deter potential opponents from challenging his rule, he said.
It is also likely intended as a means to restore investor confidence by conveying the message that he will not waste time in returning to business-as-usual and democratic rules," she said. However, the fact that he plans to rewrite the constitution and electoral code means that the transition period will likely take months, if not years.
Gabon’s opposition candidate, Albert Ondo Ossa, wouldn’t comment on the inauguration but told The Associated Press last week that the government needed to return to constitutional rule and he didn’t consider the president’s ousting to be a coup but rather a “palace revolution” in order to continue the Bongo’s family’s reign.
Some saw the 2023 election as the first time the Bongo family faced a challenger that wasn’t a quasi-relative. But within a coup, the extended Bongo family may have managed to resurrect itself.
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