U.S. ranchers are shocked to see the biggest drop in cattle production in almost 60 years. Costs are shooting up as well, with everything from livestock to supplies to feed and fuels facing increases of more than 50%. Industry experts say that now profitability is in jeopardy, and many operations are becoming unviable due to the massive losses farmers and ranchers have suffered in recent years. The outlook couldn’t be gloomier for the nation’s food supply chain. Beef prices are expected to skyrocket as inventory shrinks even more in the months ahead. This is an unprecedented crisis that will hit producers, retailers, and consumers alike and trigger some worrying consequences for our food systems.
In 2022, producers sold thousands of extra cattle in the fall to make up for a shortage in feed, adds Stuart Smyth, associate professor in the College of Agriculture and Bioresources. "People just had to take a huge hit that year," he said. "Cattle producers are used to dealing with extreme situations," Laycraft stressed. "Unfortunately, when you get multiple years in a row, that's where you start to run out of the feed inventories. And that forces you into more difficult decisions in terms of reducing cattle numbers.”
The same concerns beef producers faced in the past couple of years are likely to linger for 2023. The year following a drought year can be tough for forage production for grazing, even with normal precipitation, explains Jerry Volesky, Nebraska Extension range and forage specialist. “The reasons are most likely associated with the reduced root and rhizome growth, formation of new buds, and overall energy reserve status of grazing plants,” he says.
In Kansas, Pratt Livestock Assistant Manager Steve Stratford says that everybody is concerned about what will happen this summer. “There’s no hay left, no pasture coming unless we get rain. That, plus inflation and the high cost of inputs right now, expenses are just crazy, and we don’t know what to do.” On top of that, the cost of inputs, such as minerals, premix, and proteins – additives that can extend feed supplies or make poorer quality feed palatable or part of a balanced ration – faced price increases of more than 50%, putting them out of reach for the typical, local, cattle producer.
The director of public and governmental affairs at the Wyoming Farm Bureau Federation, Brett Moline, highlighted that it’s more than just the hay prices leading people to give up their cows.“Equipment costs, diesel fuel, supplies – everything is going up,” he stressed. “The farmers were having a hard time even being able to get some of their fertilizer, let alone afford it. So that's cut into the crop yields."
Since producers can only contract their herds so much, eventually they will need to sell fewer cattle and rebuild the herd, which means less production over the next few months — and that usually sends cattle prices higher. It won’t take a lot of time for people not directly tied into cattle production to notice less beef in the grocery stores.“There is a shortage coming,” Stratford. “By the end of the summer, if we don’t get rain, there will be a considerable lack of beef for the consumer.”
This crisis could literally break our food systems and spark shortages that would persist for way longer than anyone could even imagine. Our food supply chains are already in shambles, and any new disruption has the potential to trigger a cascade of failures that would send not only ranchers but retailers and consumers over the edge.

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