ANKARA, TURKEY — On June 7, Turkey will hold parliamentary elections in which the ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, hopes to gain enough seats to change the country's constitution, handing more power to president Tayyip Erdogan.
Standing in AKP's way is Turkey's fourth largest political party, the People's Democratic Party, or HDP, which will compete in parliamentary elections as a party for the first time ever. Whether HDP wins or loses, this relatively small, left-wing, Kurdish party will have an outsized influence on AKP's ability to change the constitution.
AKP and the Turkish President, Tayyip Erdogan, want to create a powerful executive presidency. The president's office would be more powerful than the office of prime minister, which Erdogan formerly occupied.
To do that, the AKP needs to win 330 seats, or 60 percent of the seats in Turkey's 550-seat Grand National Assembly. Then, a referendum on the presidency can be put to a popular vote.
This election is also the first time HDP candidates will run as members of the party instead of as independents. To enter Turkey's parliament, a party must get at least 10 percent of the vote nationally, winning about 60 seats.
Turkey's two larger opposition parties, the secularist Republican People's Party (CHP), and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), are both sure to pass the 10 percent threshold. The smaller, Kurdish, HDP is therefore the lynchpin to either an AKP supermajority or an AKP led coalition government, since it is uncertain whether HDP will reach the 10 percent threshold.
If the HDP fails to pass the 10 percent threshold, those 60 seats will be redistributed, likely giving AKP the 330 seats required to push a constitutional referendum.
If the election is a landslide for AKP and it wins 67 percent, or 367 seats, a referendum won't be necessary, and the AKP can change the constitution in parliament.
Fear of this potential outcome is motivating some voters to defect from the CHP and MHP to strategically support the HDP, considered the surest defense against an unchallenged AKP government.
Secularists, minorities and press freedom advocates across the three opposition parties all oppose Erdogan's bid to change the constitution.
If HDP passes the 10 percent threshold, the AKP will be forced to form a coalition or minority government, making a constitutional change to empower the presidency much less likely.
Erdogan and the AKP are widely popular in Turkey, with Erdogan having won 52 percent of the popular vote in the presidential race last August. The AKP has led a majority government since 2002.
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