Donald Trump is leading in 6 of the 7 battleground states that are most likely to determine the outcome of the election. The polls are particularly close in the first three battlegrounds below, meaning our average is within a normal-sized polling error of 3.5 points and either a Trump or President Biden victory is plausible. In the other four battlegrounds, the candidates’ polling leads are larger, but the race is still close.

Our polling averages are an informed best guess for who is leading the presidential race. A lot could change before Election Day.

Original reporting by Lenny Bronner, Diane Napolitano, Kati Perry and Luis Melgar.

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