Ian Bremmer's Quick Take:

Cases, of course, are going up all over the world. And despite the fact that we are paying the most attention to the United States right now, it's important to recognize that within about a week, most of the countries that that are leading the "league tables" as it were, in case load, are going to be outside of the advanced industrial economies. Indeed, I would say within a week, the U.S. and U.K. will be the only remaining countries of the top 10 that are wealthy democracies. The rest are going to be developing countries. And that is where this disease is going, despite all of the challenges here in the United States.
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Overwhelmingly, it's the developing countries where you do not have the social distancing. You do not have the economic wherewithal to pay to keep people out of work. You don't have the testing. So the numbers are going to look like they're mostly in the developing world. And the reality is the cases will explode way beyond that. That will show up in death tallies that are higher per case in many of those countries than they are in the United States or Europe because they're not testing as much, except in the countries that have really young populations. And one of the most interesting things here is that, you know, Africa is not going to have the direct impact of coronavirus that other countries are. Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa. It's over 200 million people. Average age is something like 19. And that means most people, the vast majority that get the disease won't even have symptoms and they certainly won't get very sick. And that is, it's nice to see that, that finally, you know, sub-Saharan Africa usually gets just destroyed by all of these diseases. And here the direct human count will be less.

Here in the United States, of course, we have the highest numbers of cases per day now of any point since the pandemic really began in earnest in the U.S. in March and April. People are saying, hey, that's just cases. What about hospitalizations? Actually, hospitalizations are spiking now. And in many states across the country, you're starting to see hospitals getting overwhelmed in Mississippi and Florida, in Texas and Southern California and Arizona. Death rates, what about that? Well, death rates also have been lower, but they have been going up. They're starting to go up. They're much higher than in Canada, much higher than in Europe, per capita death rates in the United States overall. And even though these are comparatively young people that are mostly getting the disease right now, still, if the ICU beds get overwhelmed, then mortality goes way up. So the next few weeks, I fear, are not going to show a an improvement in trajectory there.

It's certainly welcome that in Florida and Texas and southern California, they've now shut the bars. One of the places where people are in most, you know, sort of packed inside against each other. You're not sitting down. You're standing up. There's a lot of laughing. There's a lot of breathing in the close quarters. So it's good to see that happen. But otherwise, none of these states have actually gone back to earlier levels of lockdown.

And the problem here, of course, is that we're in the middle of an election, only a few months away. And Trump is not doing well. As I'm sure you know, his blended approval rate is about 40 percent right now, down from his peak at about 46. He's behind Biden in the swing states. He's behind Biden on almost all issues, except he's consistently ahead of Biden in who voters think would handle the economy better. And that is a double edged sword because it means if you're Trump and you care most about winning the election, you're going to focus on doing everything possible to pivot towards the economy.

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