Could the Philippines' 2024 EEZ Submission could kill the South China Sea Code of Conduct?
It is possible !
Discover how the Philippines, in responding to its conflicts with China in the Second Thomas Shoal (Ayungin Shoal) has made a tactical error seeking an extended EEZ.
By using the Sabah baseline, it revives a dispute over Sabah claim, a move that will strain bilateral relations with Malaysia. The submission has also introduced new problems in the overlapping claims in the South China Sea dispute. These developments risk creating distrust among the ASEAN claimant states which could cause the negotiations on the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea to break down.
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By welcoming discussions with Malaysia and Vietnam over its EEZ submission but not China, the Philippines appears to be betting that this move would push Malaysia and Vietnam into negotiating separate codes of conduct with it. However, this move is very risky as it could erode trust and confidence among the claimant states and could cause the ASEAN claimants to go their own ways and deal with China. If that were to happen it would mean the end of the Code of Conduct and leave South China Sea /West Philliine Sea vulnerable to conflict. Ultimately this would spell disaster for regional peace, security and stability and ASEAN unity.
CHAPTERS
0.00 - Intro
0.16 - What is the Extended Continental Shalef Claim?
0.52 - Background to the Phillipines-China clashes in the Second Thomas Shoal
3.56 - The Implications of the Phillipines' submision
5.19 - What is the Phillipines strategy?
6.44 - Conclusion
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