This is from the mission "Money Lending and Other Sins III" in Chapter 2. Notice how Downes keeps coughing, and he also spits in Arthur's face. Downes has TB (his wife mentions that he is sick), and spread it to Arthur this way - and Arthur keeps touching his face afterwards... hmm.
In other words... THOMAS DOWNES KILLED ARTHUR MORGAN. Or, Strauss killed Arthur. Nice one, Rockstar.
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