Joe Perry, CMT, of ForexAnalytix, reviews his trade on the euro from last month and considers a different way to play the situation via the British pound. He outlines the technical setup for EUR/GBP using Fibonacci retracements and Elliot Wave analysis, notes key levels that traders should pay attention to, and considers red flags to the thesis, in this interview with Jake Merl. Filmed on June 8, 2019.

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How to Play the Euro Against the Pound (w/ Joe Perry)
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Transcript:
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back near the top end of the trend line on a weekly, we're putting in a pin bar which is showing there's not
much movement there as we're sitting at the top of that trend line.
So, as we're sitting there, and you resume it now on to the daily, you could see that we came off that low
in May of 0.8513, traded higher to up where we are now which I was just saying that trendline that goes
all the way back to 2017. Also, we're putting in an ascending triangle right here near the top. And I love
trading at ascending triangles. The target of an ascending triangle is to retrace the whole ascending triangle
and the target for that is 0.8050. However, I think it's going to go lower, I'm looking at 0.8750, which is
actually 50% of the range we've been trading in for that whole time.
Also, within that ascending triangle, there's what's called a three-driver pattern. And that's when price puts
in three new highs but the RSI puts in three lower highs, and there's a high probability that price will roll
over when you see that and down at that 0.8750 levels, also the 200-Day Moving Average so 50%
retracement of the range we've been in. And the 200-Day Moving Average coming around that level.
Seems like it could be a good spot for to target.
JAKE MERL: So, you mentioned the ascending triangle and also the three-driver. Are there any other
technicals you're watching that's confirming your thesis?
JOE PERRY: Well, if you look at from a harmonics perspective, you could see that we are trading back
up towards the 88% retracement level from the highs of 2019. At that 80% retracement level, we're looking
to turn lower there. And as that happens, that will be a bearish bat pattern. And, again, 50% is one of the
targets of a bearish bat pattern. So, that would come in right around that same level.
Also, from an early wave perspective, we're at the end of a bigger Wave 3 reversal pattern, which is
labeled a leg D of a bigger triangle pattern. And as that rolls over, it's also targeting down like 0.8730 or
so. So, that's right around that general area of 0.8750 that we're looking for.
JAKE MERL: And so, what key levels would you be looking at to make the trade?
JOE PERRY: So, I'd be looking to get in at the market, which today is right around 0.8970. I'm going to
have a tight stop on it, though, up around 0.9022. However, if it does break through there, I'd be looking
to get short again, up around 0.9100, which is the highs from earlier in the year. Target on a downside is
0.8750 as I've been saying, and I think that if it does happen, it's going to happen quickly. Probably within
a month or so.
JAKE MERL: And what would you say is the biggest risk to your trade?
JOE PERRY: The biggest risk is that the ECB comes out and begins with this less dovish speak than they
have been. The data may come out a little better over the course of the next month, which may push the
Euro a little bit higher. Something may happen over the next month and Brexit is done and over with and
everything's great. So, that would be some of the things.

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