When Robert died, Cersi moved quickly, and she could do so easily. Because of three things: She had The Men. The Red Cloaks and Gold Cloaks were her allies/servants. Ned had few men. Renly and Stannis had left the city. She had hostages. If Ned refused to help, Cersi could kill Sansa.
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No one holds a Lannister Cersi Cares about until much later, and its out of her hands
Cersi could claim the North on behalf of her Ward. Cersi could say in the event of Robb’s Death “Sansa is now Lady of the North,” no one could do the same to her
With Queen of the North Marcella, Cersi couldn’t allow a full scale war or else her daughter would die. Cersi wouldn’t risk that. But Taiwin would.
When a member of Taiwin’s family is captured, he stops caring. Stafford Lannister, brother to the love of Taiwin’s life was captured, did Taiwin try to protect him? No, he planned a heinous mutilation. When Jaime was Aerys hostage, did he not sack King’s Landing? He did sack it, possibly killing his son.
Taiwin wouldn’t care that Marcella was a hostage, and is shrewd enough to risk testing his hypothesis. Contemporary Starks wouldn’t kill children, so Marcella would be fine on that account.
Taiwin doesn’t care about the wellbeing of his family, but he cares a great deal about his family, if that makes sense. Ramsay, being Ramsay, would either rape Marcella (Keep in mind she’s 10) and that would shatter any hope of a Bolton-Lannister Alliance.
Say the two were betrothed once Robert reaches Winterfell to name Ned his Hand. Robert stays longer to see Marcella wed to Robb in the godswood while Cersi all but tears her hair out and everything that follows is the same, with Robb staying in Winterfell but Marcella by his side.
Joffrey killing Ned Stark will not care that Marcella is an implicit hostage who Robb would never kill anyway not that Cersi knows this. Robb rides to war with Marcella, as Catelyn knows keeping Marcella close is a sure guarantee that Sansa and Arya will not be harmed in King's Landing.
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