Fisher Investments’ founder, Executive Chairman and Co-Chief Investment Officer Ken Fisher discusses the yield curve. Ken believes the yield curve is important economic indicator because it correlates with banks’ profitability and willingness to lend. He says a steep yield curve—where interest received on long-term loans exceeds banks’ short-term deposit costs—incentivizes lending and drives economic activity. Conversely, Ken says, when short-term rates exceed long-term rates (an inverted yield curve), lending conditions can suffer—potentially signaling a recession ahead.

Ken believes recent concerns on one yield curve measure—the narrowing spread between the 2- and
10-year US treasury rates—are misguided because it does not accurately reflect banks’ profit margins. He suggests using the 90-day and 10-year spread is a better yield curve measure and appropriately accounts for banks’ short-term borrowing costs relative to long-term loans.

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Investing in securities involves a risk of loss. Past performance is never a guarantee of future returns. Investing in foreign stock markets involves additional risks, such as the risk of currency fluctuations. The foregoing constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. Nothing herein is intended to be a recommendation. The opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.

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