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Tropical Cyclone Freddy made landfall on the central east coast of the island nation of Madagascar at approximately noon EST (16Z) or 8 p.m. local time Tuesday, Feb. 21, as a weakening category 3 storm with 115 mph winds, according to the final advisory before landfall from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. The coast near the landfall location is moderately populated, and damage from storm surge and wind is likely to be extensive. However, the biggest concern from Freddy will be its widespread rains of 4-8 inches, which are expected to affect the nation’s third-largest city, Antsirabe (population 250,000).
Dangerous flooding is likely because soils along Freddy’s expected path are already saturated from flooding rains brought by January’s Tropical Cyclone Chenesco. Chensco stalled off the west coast of the island and brought torrential rains Jan. 19-21 that killed 33 people, left 20 missing, and made 34,000 people homeless. In addition, the flood damage potential for Freddy is higher than for storms in previous decades, because of the considerable deforestation Madagascar has experienced over the past 20 years: Madagascar lost 24% of its forest cover between 2000 and 2020, according to globalforestwatch.org. Madagascar is quite mountainous, so deforestation allows floodwaters to build up to higher heights, run off more quickly, and cause greater damage.
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