China, the second largest economy in the world, is now attracting some attention about how the country will respond to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
As the world anxiously watches the Russia-Ukraine crisis unfold, China remains relatively quiet in an somewhat awkward position. Beijing is yet to express whether its support one side, and might never clearly declare its stance to avoid dragging China into this international conflict.
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China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi recently said that all parties should return to the 2015 Minsk Agreement, a road map towards peace in eastern Ukraine, to stop the possible major conflict between the two former soviet countries. Mr Wang urges all parties towards "dialogue and consultation".
He said "certain major countries" contributes to a new Cold War mentality. He declares the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries should be respected, "China expects all parties to find a solution that is truly conducive to safeguarding European security through dialogue and consultations."
It should not be mistaken that China will not assist Russia in the possible confict, but Chinese stance does echo comments earlier this month from French President Emmanuel Macron. Macron pointed out that revival of the Minsk Agreement was the "only path peace can be built".
China has a reasonable concern that the crisis will affect its policies on Taiwan, Tibet and Xinjiang. Obviously, Beijing has declared that its partnership with Moscow has "no limits" while still maintaining strong ties with Kyiv, and there is no clear incentive for China to confront U.S. and European Union on Ukraine issue.
China has furthered its deep strategic and business partnerships with both countries, making it not so easy to pick a side openly. Not only is China Ukraine's largest trading partner, but Kyiv has also provided Beijing some military assets in the past. China definitely will not directly oppose Russia due to its quasi-alliance with Russia, but China also do not plan to draw more pressure from the U.S. and EU on this matter.
China also does not have the intension to make the EU an enemy by publicly supporting Russia in a possible war.
China has only advised its citizens in Ukraine to remain vigilant, and likely to continue with further economical cooperation with Russia, instead of picking a side in the conflict that China has no a major interest.
China has slammed the West for creating an air of tension, and Russia might be satisfied with China’s stance. As long as China provide economical backing, Russia will have more options on the table in negotiations with U.S or EU.
Beijing is likely to continue to try having it both ways with the two countries, given the calculation could be Russia does not intend to have a full-scale war, only to increase pressure to convince U.S. and EU giving in on topics like Nord Stream 2 project.
And this is not the first time China has kept a low-key position on Ukraine's disputes. In 2014, 97 per cent of voters in Crimea backed a move to join Russia. Western countries tried to scuttle the outcome at the UN, while Russia rejected the resolution, China abstained.
Overall China sees no major interest in the matter, and happy to stay on the sideline to allow Russia carries out possible military and political maneuvers, and it is very clear that China will not lose in the situation for one simple reason. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is forcing U.S. and EU again to move resource away from targeting China, this could be the biggest gain China can have out of the years-long dispute in eastern Ukraine.
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Photo and video: Wiki common, CCTV 4 website, Yangshipin PPLDaily
