This Time is Different: A History of Eight Hundred Years of Financial Crises is a book written by two economists, Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, which focuses on the history of financial crises over the past 800 years and extracts some commonalities and laws that are very helpful in understanding the operation of modern financial markets and the possible risks in the future.
First, let's take a look at the structure of the book. It is divided into three parts: the first part is an overview of the history of financial crises in the past 800 years, the second part is an in-depth analysis of the financial crises in each period, and the third part is a forecast and recommendations for possible future financial crises.
In the first part, the authors mention the commonalities and laws of financial crises. They find that financial crises are often triggered by borrowing bubbles, and these bubbles are usually caused by excessive credit expansion by governments and financial institutions. At the same time, the authors describe the impact of financial crises on the economy and the ways in which governments and central banks respond to financial crises.
In the second part, the authors further analyze the financial crises in various periods, including the South China Sea bubble, the Asian financial crisis, and the U.S. subprime crisis, among others. Through their analysis of these crises, they reveal the causes, effects, and responses to the crises, and give some specific recommendations for these crises.
In the third part, the authors make predictions and suggestions on the possible future financial crises. They point out that future financial crises are likely to involve emerging market countries because their financial systems are relatively fragile and may be triggered by external pressures. At the same time, they also put forward some policy recommendations, including strengthening supervision, reducing excessive credit expansion, etc.
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