Tywin Lannister is an excellent politician, there can be no doubt about that. The way in which this political aptitude translates into military aptitude is that Tywin is able to project an image of himself as a brilliant strategist. However, this perception doesn't really hold water. Tywin has been involved(as a leader) in four wars: Roger Reyne’s Rebellion, Robert’s Rebellion, the First Greyjoy Rebellion, and the War of the Five Kings, and one minor incident, the a Defiance of Duskendale. So, what is his track record?
In the Reyne War, Tywin does win every battle he fights in. It should be noted, however, that the Lannister army had the numerical advantage in all the major engagements of the war and despite this advantage Roger Reyne almost won the decisive battle, leading his outnumbered men on a charge that staggered the Lannisters until Tywin rallied them. The war was very winnable for Tywin; Tytos Lannister’s incompetence made the Lannisters look like the underdogs but they were still the most powerful house in the West. Plus, Roger underestimated Tywin, which was in his favor. So, in the Reyne Rebellion Tywin wins every battle, while also having a massive advantage once you get past Roger Reyne’s hype. His major insight there(reroute get the stream) wasn't strategic brilliance, it was brutality. It didn't take a genius to see the opportunity, and it was a maneuver that required a very specific set of circumstances(that Tywin be sieging literally the one castle on Earth like this, next to a stream); and thus not applicable in normal operations.
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Robert’s Rebellion sees Tywin take King’s Landing using subterfuge. Again, this wasn't strategic brilliance, it was subterfuge. What if Aerys had listened to Varys and not opened the gates to the Lannister army? Tywin would be kind of screwed; Aerys would have his son, he’d be unlikely to get as much of the spoils, it would all be wasted. Hinging your plan on tricking the enemy is a bad idea because it requires your enemy to do a specific thing; as Von Moltke says, no plan survives contact with the enemy, so a good commander shouldn't hinge their plans on the enemy’s choices. This is what Tywin does, however.
Tywin Lannister plays a small role in the Greyjoy Rebellion but it doesn't do him credit. His role here is to have his fleet destroyed in an attack led by Euron Greyjoy. We don't really know enough to say how much Tywin is to blame, but it certainly doesn't help his case.
Robb Stark pulled off risky unexpected tactics that constantly frustrated tywins strategic expectations. Splitting up his army to fight two numerically larger enemy hosts is a mad plan. But Robb made it work and cut tywins forces in half while relieving riverrun.
Attacking the westerland with only 6 thousand men is madness, but Robb pulled it off. He smashed another host at oxcross and had free reign to seize and plunder a third of the west of livestock, gold, silver and more.
Which would further strain the supply lines of tywins host trapped at harrenhal.
In short, the young wolf was a wild card.
Let's face it, tywin was lucky due to circumstances he couldn't predict like balon stupidly snubbing Robb's alliance offer and invading the north; the bathroom brothers opposing each rather than uniting; or edmures pyrrhic victory.
#houselannister #tywinlannister #housestark #robbstark
