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BETTING ODDS:
---spread------ win su -------over-under
New England Patriots -10½ na ov 47½ 10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS, 6-6 over/under
Miami Dolphins +10½ na un 47½ 5-7 SU, 4-6-2 ATS, 7-5 over/under
The NFL needs to think a little harder before locking in next year’s Monday Night Football schedule. We’ve really had some duds this season and the line for this week’s New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins MNF matchup suggests that we’re likely to have another.
The Patriots are laying double digits on the road at Hard Rock Stadium. We saw a mild adjustment to the line with the announcement that Rob Gronkowski is suspended and it moved the number from -12 to -11.
The Patriots are rolling right and the spreads don’t even seem to matter. New England played Miami two weeks ago in Foxboro and won 35-17 as a 16.5-point favorite. The Patriots have covered 6 straight as a favorite of a touchdown or more in 4 of those games.
Since opening the season 2-2, New England hasn’t allowed more than 17 points in a game..
Turning 40 made no difference to Tom Brady. The future Hall of Famer owns a 26/4 TD/INT ratio with a 65.5 % completion rate and 3,632 passing yards in his age-40 season. He’s simply a freak of nature.
Brady has spread the ball around really well this season, as 4 different players have at least 45 receptions.
Rob Gronkowski leads the team with 55, but will be unavailable this week, after a disgusting cheap shot on Bills cornerback Tre’Davious White. And To be honest, one game out, isn’t enough.
Brady will have to adjust without his top target. Brandin Cooks is one target behind Gronkowski and 2 catches behind, so he should be able to pass him in this game.
James White is the third-leading receiver with 51 catches and the running backs for the Patriots have 89 catches total. That is more or less how the Patriots run the football, though they do have 4.2 yards per carry this season as well.
New England is tied for third with 6.1 yards per play and third in points behind the Saints and Rams. No passing attack has been more potent than this one with 8.2 adjusted net yards per pass attempt.
The Patriots have only turned the ball over 8 times, which is why they are so good and why the defense has had time to adjust.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins actually opened 4-2. They did snap a stretch of 5 straight losses with a blowout win over the hapless Denver Broncos this past week, with a season-high 35 points and the 9 points allowed was a season-low.
Adam Gase isn’t belittling his offense publicly as much as he was early on in the season, so that probably represents progress. To be fair, nobody could really fault Gase, as the Dolphins managed more than 300 yards just twice in their first 7 games.
On the year, Miami has only converted 33.1 % of its third down attempts. One-year fill-in Jay Cutler has been up and down, with a 63.9 % completion rate and a 15/11 TD/INT ratio.
Kenyan Drake has 4.9 yards per carry.
Damien Williams only has 3.9 yards per pop and is out with a dislocated shoulder.
The Dolphins, as a team, only have 3.7 yards per carry, including 138 subpar efforts from Jay Ajayi, who was traded to Philadelphia.
There is a lot of skill position talent here, but Jarvis Landry has dominated the targets and the receptions. He has 80 grabs on 123 targets.
Kenny Stills and DeVante Parker have each secured less than 60 % of their targets. Some of the blame falls on Cutler, but it also falls on those 2 talented wideouts for not getting open enough.
The problems run deep for a team with only 4.8 yards per play and the fourth-lowest adjusted net yards per pass attempt at 4.6.
Predictions: New England Patriots -10½
The Patriots are in a pretty bad spot for those looking to lay big chalk. The Pittsburgh game is on deck and this is a second straight road game. That being said, New England has covered every number thrown its way for the last 6 weeks.
The Dolphins still don’t have much of an offense and the Patriots defense has held everybody to 17 points or less in 8 straight games. With big numbers, you have to ask yourself how many points the favorite needs to cover.
If your answer is 28, what’s to stop New England from getting there? The Patriots have been dominant and it’s best to ride that train until it stops.,
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