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My favourite energy stock currently is MEG Energy, which trades on the Toronto Exchange.
(Closely followed by Journey energy).
MEG have over 2 Billion in proven and probable reserves, with a cost of production around c$30 BBL.
The current market cap is valuing MEG's production at only $69 BBL WTI.
In this video I model the expected cashflows of the company using $100 WTI, which, at it's current price of $115 I think is fair.
Whilst I'll refer you to the video for the full breakdown, the crux of my investment thesis is that I believe MEG's true value is somewhere in the vicinity of $51/Share.

At current levels, Free cashflow yields above 30% indicate an investor today might expect to recover their full investment in c. 3 years and continue to be the beneficiary of roughly 47 years of cashflows from the companies ongoing production.

The company will hit their net debt targets likely by the end of 2022, thereafter they intend to pay 100% of free cashflow to shareholders.

Saving the best for last, the company has NOT hedged their future production and hence acts effectively as a call option on higher oil prices.

All the best & DYODD.
Benjamin.


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