Taiwan’s relationship with China is evolving following the inauguration of a new Taiwanese president in May 2024.
This panel discussion covers what to expect from the Administration of Lai Ching-te and examines China’s threat posture including gray zone coercion and preparations for offensive action. The discussion features Bonnie Glaser, Director, Indo-Pacific, at the German Marshall Fund of the U.S. and Rear Admiral Mike Studeman, USN (Ret.), Former Commander of the Office of Naval Intelligence, Indo-Pacific Command Director of Intelligence (2019-2022), and MITRE’s National Security Fellow.
The event was co-hosted by MITRE’s Center for Strategic Competition and the MITRE National Security Sector’s Counter-PRC Cell.
*TIMESTAMPS*
00:00 – 6:10 Introduction
6:11 – 15:06 Highlights from the Taiwanese President’s Inauguration Speech:
15:07 – 17:46 Taiwan’s Sovereignty & China’s Intentions
17:47 – 25:40 China’s response to Taiwan’s Inauguration
25:41 – 33:58 A Rollercoaster relationship
33:59 – 39:22 Beijing’s grey zone toolkit
39:23 – 44:29 How Taiwan is countering disinformation
44:30 – 47:28 A first move vs. first shot
47:29 – 52:47 Allies and the deterrence equation
52:48 – 58:06 Military deterrence
58:07 – 1:02:51 Taiwan’s defense spending
1:02:52 – 1:03:56 Hard-shell deterrence concept
1:03:57 – 1:04:31 Beginning of Q&A
1:04:32 – 1:10:38 Assurance concept
1:10:39 – 1:11:57 Integrated deterrence vs. integrated shaping
1:11:58 – 1:19:51 How Beijing is weighing the costs
1:19:52 – 1:22:52 Russia’s role
1:22:53 – 1:25:45 China’s capabilities
1:25:46 – 1:30:35 Taiwanese Opinion
1:30:36 – 1:31:17 Closing
