The simulation, provided by the Storm Surge Research Group for one of Revkin's Irene-related posts on Saturday, August 27 shows the surge anticipated from New York Harbor around to Long Island Sound.In another entry from Sunday morning, August 28, the peak of Hurricane Irene in the New York Metro area (which was downgraded to a Tropical Storm in most areas), Revkin wrote, "In a conversation about the storm with Bowman late last night, we mused on whether Irene's impact would serve as a wake-up call prompting the city, which will face rising damage risk as sea levels rise in this century, to seriously consider storm surge barriers like those on the Thames [River Barrier in England]."
As detailed in the simulation from Revkin in his New York Times blog, "The first surge came around dawn [on Sunday, August 28], driven by an unusually high tide and the storm. The biggest [New York] City surge, driven by high tide and the storm, hit around 1 p.m." But, SBU researcher Dr. Brian A. Colle clarifies, "All predictions that I saw in the time series had the maximum surge around 5 a.m. - 9 a.m., and the storm arrived around 10 a.m. Our Group did a good job with the forecasts, and the fact that we run an ensemble of forecasts really helped compared to other models out there."
For more on this story, see NYSG's related news item: [ Ссылка ]
