What changes are likely in military technology over the next 20 years? This question is fascinating on its own terms. More importantly, answering it is crucial for making appropriate changes in U.S. and allied weaponry, military operations, wartime preparations, and defense budget priorities. To be sure, technology is advancing fast in many realms. But it is not enough to wave one’s arms exuberantly about futuristic military possibilities. The stakes are too high. Defense resource decisions need to be based on concrete analysis that breaks down the categories of major military technological invention and innovation one by one and examines each. Presumably, those areas where things are changing fastest may warrant the most investment, as well as the most creative thinking about how to modify tactics and operational plans to exploit new opportunities (and mitigate new vulnerabilities that adversaries may develop as a result of these same likely advances).

Michael O'Hanlon is a senior fellow in Foreign Policy at the Brookings Institution, where he specializes in U.S. defense strategy, the use of military force, and American national security policy. He is also director of research for the Foreign Policy program at Brookings. Dr. O’Hanlon specialties include U.S. defense strategy and budget, American national security policy. His most recent publications include, Beyond NATO: A New Security Architecture for Eastern Europe (Brookings Press, 2017); A Glass Half Full? Rebalance, Reassurance, and Resolve in the U.S.-China Strategic Relationship (with James Steinberg, Brookings, 2017); Brookings Big Ideas for America (editor, Brookings, 2017).

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