Raisina Dialogue | Can the West manage a muscular China?

This question elicited responses that engaged as much with the resolve and congruence within western capitals—and indeed, on the composition of the “resist China” formation—as they did with an assertive China. Very little was enunciated about Chinese capabilities, its intentions beyond Taiwan, or specific actions and posture that make China a self-evident threat. The fragility of China’s restrictive political culture was well articulated, yet only as a contrast to those of liberal democracies. Chinese rhetoric surrounding Taiwan was perhaps the only domain that qualified Beijing as a threat to peace and stability. There was a strong consensus that if the West could unite against any Chinese aggression, the latter would be forced to withdraw. The discussion on managing China would have benefitted from greater clarity over what an eventual entente could be. African participants at the dialogue counselled on working together and that a strategic stalemate would be deleterious for all.

The spotlight was on the willingness, capacities, and composition of the West, and on its ability to unify. A line of reasoning held that China’s expansion of its military capacities necessitates a coalition to ensure its ‘good behaviour’. Another held that Beijing would be hemmed in by its domestic political systems and ultimately, orchestrate its own stagnation.

Reinhard Bütikofer, Member of the European Parliament, spoke on the need for this coalition or “phalanx”. The phalanx required cohesive single purpose, without which its efficacy was lost. Local relations with the Chinese colossus are all chequered and unique, and hence, a collective response remains elusive. China may not have many, or any, natural allies, but nor many purely natural enemies. Hence, a phalanx against China would require a specific common objective to pursue that neither the QUAD, AUKUS, nor our participants articulated.

A majority claimed that Western unity against Russia over Ukraine reflects what would happen with China over Taiwan. However, this may be misplaced. Would the West risk its economic and financial dependence on China and its intricately linked value chains with the dragon for a war in Asia just as they have in Ukraine? Nothing in its response to Ukraine suggests a willingness to spill blood under national flags in the event of a conflict.

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We interviewed over 50 participants on some of the burning questions of today at Raisina Dialogue 2022. In this series, find out what some of the world's leading thinkers, policymakers and analysts shared.

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