Finally, the information we've been looking for. Now I know EXACTLY how bad to feel when I fail a craft.
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Rarity: Magic Item w/ 1 Affix
Tier: 1 chance: 0.525
Tier: 2 chance: 0.345
Tier: 3 chance: 0.1725
Tier: 4 chance: 0.075
Rarity: Magic Item w/ 2 Affixes
Tier: 1 chance: 0.63
Tier: 2 chance: 0.414
Tier: 3 chance: 0.207
Tier: 4 chance: 0.09
Rarity: Rare Item w/ 3 Affixes
Tier: 1 chance: 0.735
Tier: 2 chance: 0.483
Tier: 3 chance: 0.2415
Tier: 4 chance: 0.105
Rarity: Rare Item w/ 4 Affixes ---- OR Exalted item w/ 2 Affixes
Tier: 1 chance: 0.84
Tier: 2 chance: 0.552
Tier: 3 chance: 0.276
Tier: 4 chance: 0.12
Rarity: Exalted Item w/ 3 Affixes
Tier: 1 chance: 0.945
Tier: 2 chance: 0.6210001
Tier: 3 chance: 0.3105
Tier: 4 chance: 0.135
Rarity: Exalted Item w/ 4 Affixes
Tier: 1 chance: 1.05
Tier: 2 chance: 0.69
Tier: 3 chance: 0.345
Tier: 4 chance: 0.15
![](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/JVJn1CWcM0Y/maxresdefault.jpg)