This is based on Chapter 4 of Bargaining over the Bomb: [ Ссылка ]
The last lecture explained why an opposing states give concessions to would-be proliferators---failure to do so could cause the would-be proliferator to become a realized nuclear weapons state and revisit the dispute under a different balance of power. Does this happen in practice? This lecture shows some statistical results that suggest the answer is yes. A "virtual" nuclear deterrent may be very close to as good as the real thing.
