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Let's review the 2024 US Senate map based on the latest polls for the 34 contested races. Democrats need to defend 23 of these seats, including 8 of the 10 most competitive races and three seats in states Trump won in both 2016 and 2020: Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia. The 2024 Senate map heavily favors Republicans, who have an 82% chance of securing a majority according to Decision Desk HQ's forecast. We'll now examine the states where neither party has better than a 95% chance of winning.
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Election Predictions Official is the fastest-growing non-partisan political channel on YouTube, focused on analyzing and forecasting elections based on socio-demographics, polling data, and voting patterns. My official 2020 Presidential Election Forecast correctly predicted the outcome in 49 of 50 states. My 2022 Senate Forecast accurately projected the winners in 33 of 34 races.
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This channel is run solely by Ryan Gest, a student at The George Washington University's School of Media and Public Affairs, and an elections data science fellow at Decision Desk HQ.
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