As a futurist, I see many industries undergoing enormous change. The transportation sector is a perfect example of an industry grappling with rapid changes in technology and customer expectations. In particular, these changes are being driven by three major trends: electrification, automation, and servitization. But it’s important to note that these three trends won’t just transform the movement of people. How we move goods will also change. Therefore, the rapid advancements taking place in transportation will affect most businesses, regardless of sector – essentially, any business with a supply chain that relies on the movement of goods should be aware of these three trends. Let’s dig into the three trends in a little more detail. Trend 1: ElectrificationWe know that transportation is a major cause of greenhouse gas emissions. In the US, transportation generates around 28 percent of total greenhouse gas emissions, with these emissions largely coming from the burning of fossil fuels (particularly gasoline and diesel) to run cars, trucks, ships, planes, and trains. We urgently need to transition to greener vehicles – which is where electrification comes in. When it comes to cars, electric vehicles (EVs) appear to be reaching a tipping point. As of 2020, EVs accounted for just 6 percent of global automotive sales, but that is projected to grow to 13 percent by 2025 and 22 percent by 2030. Over time, stricter national emissions targets, greater urban populations, improvements in charging infrastructure, and the declining cost of the lithium-ion batteries that power EVs (already down 80 percent since 2010) will combine to encourage mass adoption of EVs. And it’s not just cars that are going electric:· Indian ride-sharing company Ola has invested massively in e-scooters. The company’s e-scooter plant in India is gearing up to produce 10 million electric scooters a year, making it the world’s largest e-scooter facility.· Companies like Daimler are investing in electric truck technology. For example, Daimler’s 250-mile range eCascadia and 230-mile range eM2 trucks are due to go into production in 2022.· Norway has been running electric car ferries since 2015, and the country now aims to run an all-electric fleet by 2023. Trend 2: Autonomous, connected vehiclesAutonomous vehicles provide an incredible opportunity to revolutionize the way people and goods are transported, improve road safety and ease congestion on our busy roads. They may even change the way our cities are built – if you think about it, huge parking lots will be a thing of the past, as driverless vehicles will be able to drop us at our destination and come back for us later.
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