On November 25, three Ukrainian boats were intercepted and seized by the Russian Navy en route to the Sea of Azov through the Kerch Strait. 24 Ukrainian sailors were detained, and both sides are blaming the other for unlawful provocation. What’s likely to happen if the Ukrainian sailors are prosecuted? Is this – the most dangerous clash between the countries since 2014 – once again pushing the two nations closer to open warfare? And how does this incident fit into, and affect, the larger geo-political competition?
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