UPDATE: The latest NOAA/SWPC update explains that the halo CME observed soon after the long duration M7 solar flare may actually be related to farsided activity and not Earth directed. While some plasma appears to have released following the Earth facing event, the halo signature may be unrelated. If so, the prospects for geomagnetic storming just diminished significantly. More to follow once any other updates are officially announced.
Original Post:
Active sunspot region 3697 (ex 3664) continues to produce strong solar flares. The latest event was an impulsive X1.0 solar flare at 18:36 UTC (6/1/2024). This was quickly followed by a long duration M7.3 event at 19:40 UTC. The M7 flare is responsible for an asymmetric halo coronal mass ejection (CME) that appears to be Earth directed. A passage past our planet will be possible within 48-72 hours. Geomagnetic storming may be possible by Monday or Tuesday. Further updates will be added on SolarHam.com regarding a tracking model once one is available.
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