In conversations with campaign officials for Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, it is clear that there are three critical swing states: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. If Harris wins all three of those, plus one electoral vote in Nebraska, and keeps the Democratic strongholds, she wins 270 electoral votes exactly. That pathway, officials believe, is Democrats’ best chance of winning.
That being said, if you are looking only at pure electoral value, Pennsylvania has the most electoral votes with 19, followed by Michigan with 15 and Wisconsin with 10.
“If the electoral college comes down to Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, we might still face a long period where we don’t know the winner,” said Rachel Orey, an elections expert at the Bipartisan Policy Center.
Republicans also see seven states — Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada — as the core battlegrounds. Trump campaign officials argue their task is easier because as long as they hold North Carolina they only need to win Georgia and Pennsylvania to surpass 270 electoral votes. “She’s still playing defense,” a senior Trump adviser told reporters in August.
Caption from original articles by Tyler Pager, Isaac Arnsdorf, Colby Itkowitz and Derek Hawkins.
