What is driving Miami population loss?
Miami-Dade county lost 79,535 people through net migration to other parts of Florida or other states between 2020 and 2022 according to the Brookings Institution.
Miami is a victim of its own success. It is clear that the city and county are changing. It is getting more costly to live in Miami because of all the demand. The rest of Florida added more people between 2021 and 2022 than any other state.
While residents flee the county, there is a material influx of overseas migrants which helped to mask the outflow of residents for a while. Foreign immigration partially offset some of the losses and led to a slight population increase last year. However, the net population shrank between 2019 and 2022. This is the first population loss over a multiyear period since at least 1970.
Housing Prices
House prices in Miami have surged. Miami is one of the country’s least affordable metropolitan areas even before the pandemic. Since the pandemic, prices have been driven even higher.
Miami home prices have soared over 50% since June 2020, second only to Tampa. The median asking rent increased 27% since 2019 despite the shrinking population driven by a lack of affordable rental housing.
61% of the rental population of Miami is spending 30% or more of their household income on housing.
Miami metro area annual consumer price inflation was 6.9% in June, more than double the national average.
An influx of wealthy residents and rising property values are boosting tax revenues. There is a chance that the construction boom could reduce housing costs over time, but I am skeptical. I think new construction could reduce the annual increase in rents and property values, but they will still accelerate at a rate that exceeds most of the nation.
Labor Market
The Miami labor market is fickle. Some measures show the Miami labor market has not recovered from the pandemic. The Miami hourly wage is below the national average.
Unemployment in Miami Dade County is well below the national average. The county is creating new businesses at the fastest pace ever. Miami is littered with construction cranes. Miami office towers have a lower vacancy rate than most US cities.
The growth of high paying white collar jobs have raised the cost of living in Miami and the surround area which has resulted in working class and middle class people relocating to more affordable places to live. Professionals leaving Miami are headed to Orlando, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and Jacksonville. These cities offer more affordable housing, but still over warm weather and low taxes.
Miami has not been able to attract factories and big corporate headquarters the way sunbelt boomtowns like Phoenix and Austin has. However, I would argue that Miami is not trying to attract factories.
Miami roads are clogged and there is limited public transit. Hours lost to traffic delays in Miami increased 59% between 2021 and 2022.
Conclusion
America is a dynamic nation, and so are her cities. There are a lot of opportunities to move around the country and to new jobs and cities. There is no constitutional right to live anywhere. It does not matter how long you have lived in a place. It does not matter if you raised your children there decades ago. Growth and dynamic infusion is what keeps cities alive and allows them to develop. Soaring house prices will allow Miami residents to cash out and move somewhere more affordable. Miami is becoming a major business center. It is true that working class people are being displaced. However, many of these people are relocating to the sprawl that is southern Florida. They are not headed to Chicago or New York city.
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