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The Intelligence Centre of the Estonian Defence Forces says the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine remains challenging. Russian occupying forces are making some progress, although they are suffering significant losses, while Ukrainian soldiers are short of ammunition.
Estonian intelligence indicates that the Russians have made a tactical breakthrough northwest of the war-torn town of Avdiivka and pushed forward 5 km. The Russians are also maintaining pressure on the village of Chasiv Yar, where they have advanced on the southern flank.
Ukrainian troops are in need of support from their Western partners, and the lack of ammunition is a priority. However, no unplanned Ukrainian retreat or breakthrough of the front line has been observed.
Ukraine is being forced to gradually cede control of territories that lack prepared defensive positions or opportunities for defensive action, Estonian intelligence added.
The Russian forces are continuing to reorganise their units on the Luhansk front, pulling formations fighting on the battlefield back to the rear to recover and replenish supplies and replacing them with fresh ones.
The Donetsk front remains the main focus of Russian offensive operations, with a significant number of Russian troops deployed in the area. Estonian intelligence expects no quick capture of Chasiv Yar, as the town has strong defensive fortifications, so the Russians are suffering heavy losses in the fighting.
If Russian forces capture besieged Chasiv Yar, it will enable them to launch offensives against other cities of Donetsk Oblast, the Khortytsia Group of Forces' spokesperson, Nazar Voloshyn, told Politico "If the Russian occupiers manage to capture this city, they will have the opportunity to launch an offensive on Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk, and Sloviansk," Voloshyn told. Voloshyn went on to explain that Chasiv Yar is the "dominant height in the region, and its control will allow the Russian invaders" to push forward to other cities of Donetsk Oblast.
Intense fighting is underway in the area of Avdiivka-Marinka. The Russians have advanced towards the settlement of Pervomaiske.
Low-intensity fighting has been observed in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts. Clashes involving direct and long-range weapons take place daily. Ukrainian forces are continuing to retain their foothold on the left bank of the Dnipro River, regardless of Russian attacks.
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