#spc
Detail:
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2022

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and
southern Great Plains and Lower Missouri Valley Tuesday late
afternoon and Tuesday night.

...Synopsis...
A deep upper trough is forecast to extend from southern CA/northern
Baja northeastward into Saskatchewan early Tuesday morning. This
upper trough is expected to progress eastward throughout the day as
an embedded shortwave trough moves across the Southwest into the
southern Plains. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this
shortwave, spreading eastward/northeastward into the southern and
central Plains ahead of the trough.

Lee troughing is also expected to deepen ahead of the shortwave,
with surface cyclogenesis anticipated early in the day over the
central High Plains. The resulting low is then forecast to move
eastward along the KS/NE border during the day before then moving
more northeastward across IA.

At the same time, low-level moisture is expected to advect northward
across the southern and central Plans and adjacent Lower/Mid MS
Valley. Thunderstorms are expected across the region as the
approaching shortwave trough and associated surface low interact
with this moisture and resulting buoyancy.

...Central/Southern Plains into the Mid MS Valley...
By Tuesday afternoon, the expectation is for the surface low to be
over the central NE/KS border vicinity. A dryline will extend from
this low south-southwestward through central KS into western OK and
northwest TX, and a cold front will extend southwestward through
western KS. Afternoon convective initiation along the dryline
remains uncertain, owing to the strong capping and relatively modest
low-level moisture (due to both somewhat limited moisture advection
and diurnal mixing). Even if afternoon initiation is realized,
dry-air entrainment would likely lead to strong outflow and short
updraft duration.

Increasing potential for convective initiation is forecast for later
Tuesday evening as large-scale forcing for ascent increases and
low-level moisture continues to advect northward. Initial convective
initiation appears most likely across central/eastern KS, with an
initially cellular mode quickly evolving into a more linear/outflow
dominant structure. Hail and damaging wind gusts are expected to be
the primary hazards.

Higher overall storm coverage is expected farther south from central
OK into central and east TX as storms quickly develop along the
front Tuesday evening. A linear storm mode is favored, with the
resulting line moving quickly eastward across OK and north/central
TX. Hail is favored with the initial development, while damaging
winds are more likely later within the convective line. A strong
low-level jet over the region supports the potential for a few
line-embedded/QLCS tornadoes.

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