The latest U.S. jobs report showed a slowdown in hiring, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 175,000 in April, down sharply from March's robust 315,000 new job gains. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.9%, while average hourly earnings rose less than expected.
While the cooler jobs data could signal that the Federal Reserve's elevated interest rate hikes are beginning to temper labor market momentum, policymakers remain laser-focused on tackling stubbornly high inflation.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated this stance on Wednesday, stating that it will likely take "longer than previously expected" to achieve sufficient confidence in taming inflation to consider cutting rates.
The April jobs report is unlikely to sway the Fed from its current policy path, as Powell and colleagues have repeatedly stressed the need for consistent evidence of moderating price pressures before contemplating any pivot.
"The April number is unlikely to change the Federal Reserve's posture on interest rates," observed U.S. News & World Report.
Nevertheless, traders have been eagerly awaiting signs of economic slowdown, viewed as a potential catalyst for the central bank to consider rate cuts sooner rather than later. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, markets are largely pricing in just one or two rate reductions this year, with the first cut anticipated in September.
The prospect of an eventual policy easing provided a tailwind for equities on Friday, with the Nasdaq surging 1.99%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing 1.18%, and the S&P 500 gaining 1.26%. Treasury yields also declined to three-week lows, as the jobs data reignited speculation of future rate cuts among some traders.
However, the gold market, often viewed as a hedge against inflation, responded negatively to the report. As of 4:50 PM EDT, the most active June 2024 gold futures contract traded down $2.70, or 1.2%, settling at $2,310.60 an ounce. The U.S. dollar index, a key influence on the precious metal's pricing, recovered from earlier losses to fix at 105.129, lending further pressure on gold.
While the latest employment figures may have cooled somewhat, the Fed remains steadfast in its commitment to wrestling inflation back to its 2% target, suggesting that any imminent policy pivot remains an unlikely prospect. As the central bank continues navigating this economic tightrope, markets will closely scrutinize incoming data for clues on the timing and trajectory of future rate moves.
Wishing you as always good trading,
Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer
