US space agency NASA, in a hypothetical exercise, has found that a potentially hazardous asteroid has a 72% chance of hitting the Earth and we may not be adequately prepared to prevent it.

According to NASA's Fifth Asteroid Impact Exercise summary report, there is a 72 percent chance of an asteroid hitting Earth in nearly 14 years (on 12 July 2038). The team conducted a hypothetical experiment that explored risk, chances, and response options, for the potential threats of space objects hitting the Earth. Lindley Johnson, planetary defence officer emeritus at NASA said, “A large asteroid impact is potentially the only natural disaster humanity has the technology to predict years in advance and take action to prevent.”

Additionally, the summary also highlighted that currently, the agencies have limited resources to plan and implement space missions as part of disaster management. Furthermore, the concern requires global attention and coordination, for which time is limited. On the other hand, NASA suggested that they have time to prepare and respond. On the other hand, the space agency is also working on the NEO Surveyor which is set to launch in the year 2028.

The NEO Surveyor is an infrared space telescope to track and study potentially hazardous near-Earth objects. The telescope is expected to have the ability to detect asteroids years before their potential impact.

The agency continues to invest in NEO surveillance and develop technologies that could one day prevent a catastrophic asteroid impact. The recent exercise serves as a wake-up call for the global community to prioritize planetary defense. It is a reminder that the threat of an asteroid impact, though infrequent, is real and requires proactive measures to ensure the safety of our planet.


The 2038 scenario may be hypothetical, but the lessons learned from it are very much grounded in reality. The time to act
and strengthen our planetary defenses is now, while the threat remains a distant possibility.

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CREDIT: NASA
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