ADB, OECD 23년 한국 경제성장률 전망 유지 내년도 경제 전망은?
The Asian Development Bank and OECD have released their most recent projections for South Korea's economy this year.
Though the figures remained the same as previous forecasts, watchers say it's increasingly difficult for the country to see a dramatic recovery next year.
Our Park Kun-woo has what it means for the economy.
The Asian Development Bank has forecast that South Korea's economy will grow 1-point-3 percent this year, slightly lower than projections by other organizations, including the OECD.
In a report released on Wednesday, the ADB kept South Korea's growth outlook unchanged from its July forecast, although the figure was down 0-point-2 percentage points from its first one made in April.
The OECD's outlook released on Tuesday, projected Korea's growth rate at 1-point-5 percent, which was also the same as its June projection.
However, the growth rate has been continuosly falling from the 2-point-7 percent registered in December 2021.
Experts say China's slower-than-expected recovery, and sluggish exports for South Korea, are the major factors for the slowing growth rate.
For next year, the ADB and OECD also both kept their outlooks unchanged from June's projections at 2-point-2 percent and 2-point-1 percent, respectively.
However, an expert, Professor Emeritus Shin Se-don, who was asked about the projections, did not expect a dramatic recovery in growth next year.
"2024 would be a little better than 2023 but not much, I think in between one percent and two percent."
In terms of the global economy, the OECD predicted 3 percent growth for 2023, up 0-point-3 percentage points from its previous forecast, due to stronger-than-expected recoveries in countries such as the U.S., and Japan.
At the same time, however, the projection for next year was revised down to 2-point-7 percent.
In the interview, professor Shin projected an even worse situation.
"The situation in 2024 won't be much different from 2023. I think a little worse, because higher interest rates increase uncertainty in the global context."
He concluded that if high interest rates remain in 2024, it will be difficult to see recoveries in global exports and economic growth.
Park Kun-woo, Arirang News.
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2023-09-20, 18:00 (KST)
