#alarmsstage #10load #sheddingleave #randreels
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Rand was shaken by warnings from Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, minister of global risk aversion and electricity, that the country faces a huge energy shortage during the upcoming winter in South Africa. Rand traded weaker in risk-averse markets, with the local currency falling to R18.62 against the dollar on Friday and modestly falling to R18.30 on Tuesday . According to Investec chief economist Annabel Bishop, the risk aversion environment is driven by both global and local factors. On the global front, warnings of low production around the world dampened sentiment. Locally, the energy crisis with no apparent solution is keeping investors at bay. "On Thursday, IMF said global economic will likely remain around 3 percent over next five years, lowest medium-term growth forecast since 1990, well below average of 3.8 percent over past two decades." As a result, growth prospects remain weak due to persistently high inflation. He said bank failures in the US and Switzerland had raised market concerns. Other warnings of global growth come from the "geopolitical fragmentation" caused by tensions between the US and China. These run the risk of damaging the global economy as foreign direct investment and other capital are increasingly channeled into compliant country blocs. Domestically, South Africa continues to struggle with sustained load shedding, with power company Eskom pulling the cuts back to phase 5 following the Easter weekend break. Bishop said allegations from Eskom informants, including former CEO Andre de Ruyter, blamed the issues as "widespread sabotage, crime and destructive and illegal industrial action." Meanwhile, the new electricity Minister, Kgosientsho, took a different narrative, placing the blame specifically on technical and operational issues in Eskom's coal fleet. “Ramokgopa said, 'We are now entering the winter, which will be a very difficult period. The numbers show that historically the average [demand] has been around 35,000 MW, but could go as high as 37,000 MW," said Bishop. On average, Eskom can guarantee us about 27,000 MW, with peak demand around 32,000 MW in summer. The difference between guaranteed and expected winter demand is around 10,000 MW, which is roughly equivalent to 10-stage offloading, given Eskom's calculations of 1,000 MW per stage. “Higher demand will negatively impact economic growth and investor demand by widening the electricity gap,” Bishop said. “As Karpowership's gas-to-electricity supply continues to be blocked by the South African Ministry of Forestry, Fisheries and Environment , there is still no solution in sight to South Africa's ongoing electricity crisis. “It reported that Eskom currently considering purchasing electricity from a Karpowership plant located off the coast of Mozambique, although it only worth 1,000 MW and completely insufficient to stop the load shedding or increase,” he said. The economist noted that weak trade conditions around Easter exacerbated negative impact of bad news on the local currency, with a number of negative factors affecting rand. last week. This week, the market will focus on tomorrow's US CPI and core data, he said. Read Names of corrupt Eskom officials handed over to government

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