(Conversation recorded on July 30th, 2024)
The science surrounding our planet’s dynamic and complex climate can be difficult to understand, and perhaps even more challenging to decipher what the actual realities and trajectories are among so much media coverage. Yet the study of Earth’s systems has been ongoing for decades, with a majority of scientists reaching a consensus on the realities of human-driven global heating.
In this episode, ocean and climate physicist Stefan Rahmstorf joins Nate for an overview on the most common questions and misconceptions concerning the state of the climate, including the nuances of what our future planetary home might look like.
How can carbon dioxide – which makes up such a small percentage of the atmosphere – have such a large effect on the temperature of the whole planet? Why does warming have such huge ripple effects across the biosphere – from ocean currents and wind patterns to extreme weather and wildfires? What do projections for the future tell us about the survivability of some of Earth’s most populated regions – and how can communities and nations prepare and mitigate these challenges amid many other converging crises we face?
About Stefan Rahmstorf:
Stefan Rahmstorf is Co-Head of the Research Department on Earth System Analysis of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and Professor of Ocean Physics at the University of Potsdam. His research focuses on paleoclimate, ocean circulation, sea level, extreme weather events and Earth System modeling.
After working at the New Zealand Oceanographic Institute and the Institute of Marine Science in Kiel, Stefan Rahmstorf joined PIK in 1996. From 2004 to 2013 Stefan Rahmstorf advised the German government as a member of its Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU). He is not only an outstanding and highly cited scientist but also a sought-after science communicator and speaker, winning the Climate Communication Prize of the American Geophysical Union in 2017.
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00:00 - Introduction
02:46 - Stefan’s Background
06:53 - Current C02 Levels and Global Temperature
09:12 - Parts Per Million
12:27 - Evidence of C02 Causing Warming
14:43 - Solar Activity and Orbital Movements
18:13 - C02 as “Net Good” for the Planet
20:45 - Salinization of Groundwater
22:02 - Scientific Consensus and Denial
30:35 - 3 Degrees Celsius World
37:07 - On the Ground Examples
41:54 - Humidity and Rainfall
45:55 - Uninhabitability
49:07 - Biological Feedbacks
53:47 - National vs Planetary Commons
55:17 - Probable Futures
57:05 - Nonlinear Warming
01:04:52 - Natural Emissions
01:08:24 - The AMOC
01:11:55 - Ocean Heat Absorption
01:15:35 - Oceanic Oxygen
01:19:15 - Climate and Other Systemic Risks
01:22:41 - Modeling Constraints
01:28:14 - Climate Promises vs Business as Usual
01:32:50- Geoengineering
01:35:09 - Closing Questions
