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Europe is facing a turbulent time in the wake of European parliament elections that have confirmed the rise of the far-right and the unpopularity of the governments of two of the EU’s leading members, France and Germany. While European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen says the centre “is holding”, it has moved decidedly to the right.
The results foreshadow a period of increased instability at the core of the European Union, both in the two key member states as well as in the European parliament.
The centre that von der Leyen talks about has taken some hits and has become more isolated. The way it now deals with the results, will decide the course of the EU over the next couple of years.
Particularly in Western Europe, the elections have made clear that many voters are angry about issues such as the cost-of-living, inflation and migration. They are also worried about the war in Ukraine.
These issues take priority over, for example, the environment. Many are distrustful of establishment or governing parties and are increasingly normalising hitherto beyond the pale, extremist elements.
Migration, climate and EU-enlargement policies
The temptation for both centre -right and -left parties will be to adopt some of these issues and incorporate several of the far-right’s policies. This, more than the direct influence of the far-right parties in most national governments and the European parliament, could have an impact on the EU’s direction.
Particularly migration, climate and EU-enlargement policies tend to be most affected by the centre feeling intimidated by the rise of the right.
On other issues, such as support for Ukraine and the functioning of the internal market, the centre is more likely to hold its ground.
The question of how to deal with the increase in support for the far-right is currently shaping politics in several member states and can serve as a lesson for others.
The most immediate example is the divergent course of the Netherlands and Belgium. In the Netherlands the centre-right has enabled the far-right PVV of Geert Wilders and is paying the price by becoming less relevant.
In Belgium the cordon sanitaire against the far-right Vlaams Belang is holding and, against expectations, that party failed to break through.
Maintaining the cordon sanitaire
In general, a patchy trend can be seen where centre-right parties who distance themselves from the extreme-right fare slightly better than the ones that try to emulate them. By the same token, centre-left parties that place themselves in clear opposition to the far-right, also seem to be faring somewhat better.
Both eastern and northern Europe diverged somewhat from the Western European picture. In the Scandinavian countries, the greens and the left did well and in the east, centrist parties in some cases successfully confronted populist nationalists.
Both the European parliament and EU’s two biggest member states now face fateful decisions on maintaining the cordon sanitaire on the far-right, or incorporate these parties into the body politic.
In France, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, RN, might well end up the biggest party in parliament after president Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call legislative elections for the end of June. The RN crushed Macron’s Renaissance party in the European parliament elections.
If it repeats that feat in the national assembly, it could under France’s electoral system even conceivably be able to form a government. This would make for the most awkward cohabitation ever, as Macron remains president, with wide-ranging discretionary powers, especially on foreign policy and defence.
If RN grows but falls short of a majority, however, it could cast around for a coalition partner or support for a minority government. That is when the role of France’s much-reduced centre-right Les Républicains, becomes clear. At least some of its members might be tempted.
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