Fisher Investments’ founder, Executive Chairman and Co-Chief Investment Officer Ken Fisher discusses how stocks might perform if the US economy falls into recession versus experiencing an economic “soft landing”—a scenario where the economy avoids recession and continues to expand modestly. Ken says some people falsely assume the only way stocks can continue to rise is with a soft landing, while a recession would spell doom for stocks. According to Ken, stocks move on the difference between today’s investor expectations and what the future delivers, with a better-than-expected future lifting markets.
Ken points out that a potential recession is currently widely-anticipated, which has significantly lowered expectations for stocks. With many expecting a large recession, the market may be primed for a positive surprise in the form of a minor recession or “soft landing,” a boon for stocks in either scenario. Ken says markets can still rise during an economic contraction if the downturn is less severe than most people expect.
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Investing in securities involves a risk of loss. Past performance is never a guarantee of future returns. Investing in foreign stock markets involves additional risks, such as the risk of currency fluctuations. The foregoing constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. Nothing herein is intended to be a recommendation. The opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.
