The Navy’s twelve nuclear-powered aircraft carriers are among the most potent expressions of American military power. In recent years, though, there has been growing concern that changing mission requirements and enemy capabilities may make carriers more vulnerable to attack. This study analyzes the steps adversaries need to take to execute a successful attack. It concludes that carriers are likely to be highly survivable for many years (barring major tactical blunders) and that pages are becoming more resilient over time. Air-breathing threats – manned aircraft and cruise missiles – are not the only danger carriers may face from above. Three dozen countries outside the Atlantic Alliance possess tactical and theatre-range ballistic missiles, including Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. Ballistic missiles reach their intended targets much faster than cruise missiles and thus may diminish the defensive advantage conferred by aircraft-carrier mobility.

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