If you have invested in the China economy by any means, then this video might give you some meaningful perspective.

According to official data, the Chinese economy has been growing at a high speed. But many in the media and academic circles have been questioning the authenticity of the official last 20+ Years' China GDP growth rate.

There are experts who have unveiled some truth about China’s economy.

A BBC reporter noticed between 1997 and 1999 the reported China GDP growth rate for the period was kept well above 7%, while reported energy consumption went down.

Maybe to cover up the discrepancy, starting with the 2010 Yearbook, the energy consumption for those years were adjusted to show an upward trend so that it matches with the GDP. The 2015 Yearbook saw another major revision of previous years’ energy consumption figures.

In 2013, researchers at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group suggested in a report they have used Benford’s Law to find strangeness in China’s economic data. The researchers said the test raised doubt on the quality of economic data published.

As previous research suggested, the amount of night light captured by satellites can be a good indicator of economic activity and it is harder to manipulate than GDP. Luiz R. Martinez is an assistant professor at the University of Chicago. In his report titled "How Much Should We Trust the Dictator's GDP Estimates?", Martinez concluded the reported China GDP growth rates have a 29% exaggeration bias.

The reporting mechanism of China’s GDP further adds to the criticism of its credibility. In 2019, four professors from the Chinese University of Hong Kong and the University of Chicago jointly published a report titled “A Forensic Examination of China’s National Accounts.” The report noted that the GDP of China’s provinces combined is usually higher than the total Chinese GDP. There finding was that China’s yearly GDP growth rate between 2008 and 2016 was estimated to be 1.8 percent points lower than reported.

The USCC report recognized independent studies that concluded China’s true yearly economic growth rate is estimated to be 0.5 to 3 percentage points lower than the reported 6-6.5%.

Even the current premier of China, Li Keqiang, doesn’t trust his government’s numbers. After his conversation with U.S. ambassador was leaked, The Economist created the so-called Li Keqiang Index based on its understanding of Li’s criteria.

0:00 Introduction
1:19 The Barometer of Economy - Energy Consumption
2:23 Testing Data's Authenticity with Benford's Law
3:47 Verification with Satellite Images
5:02 "A Forensic Examination"
6:19 USCC: China's Government Continues to Falsify Statistics
7:00 Top CCP Official Doesn't Believe in Its Data

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References:
China GDP Growth Rate 1961-2020
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China Passes Japan as Second-Largest Economy
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China Statistical Year Book 2001
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China Statistical Yearbook 2010
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China Statistical Yearbook 2014
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China Statistical Yearbook 2015
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Is China’s Economic Slowdown Serious: View Trends with Data
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BENFORD’S LAW, AND OTHER INTRIGUING INSIGHTS INTO IMPOSSIBLE DATA
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China Data Suspected Says 75-Year-Old Theory: Cutting Research
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China’s non-conforming GDP growth
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How Much Should We Trust the Dictator’s GDP Growth Estimates?
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A forensic examination of China’s national accounts
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U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION 2019 REPORT TO CONGRESS
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How China’s next prime minister keeps tabs on its economy
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Li Keqiang index: Is it defunct and can we replace it?
[ Ссылка ]

#GDP of China #Chinese GDP #Chinese GDP Growth Rate #Chinese Economic Growth #China GDP Growth #China Economy

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