The Fight for the House #14 Oregon’s 5th Congressional District Jamie McLeod-Skinner v Lori Chavez-DeRemer
By Daniel Brinkman and Jack LaMorte

This is a district which would have been a much more difficult pickup for republicans originally, perhaps not even in the toss up column. OR 5 was repped by one of the most moderate democrat congressmen in the house, and still is until January Cong. Schrader. Schrader had a few potential weaknesses that might have invited challenge such as failing to disclose stock trades within the required deadlines, which may sound trifling, but this comes at a time when congress is increasingly under attack for members flagrantly trading on insider information. He was one of only two dems in the house against the minimum wage in principle. As such he voted against one of the covid relief bills and his primary opponent Jamie McLeod Skinner took him to the woodshed on this and other issues for being insufficiently progressive. The newcomer McLeod-Skinner beat the six term incumbent in the his primary by a convincing 57-42 margin.

In the remap the nature of the 5th has changed considerably, from a more suburban and coastal district, it has moved inland while retaining much of its core population, stretching all the way out from the outskirts of Portland to Bend. According to politico, the departure from the coastal areas and push inland has caused the non-white population in the new district to drop considerably from 25% of residents to 18%. Biden’s margin in 2020 has also dropped in the new map albeit more slightly down 0.9%.

The democratic primary champ, Jamie McLeod-Skinner is someone who has been itching to enter public life at the A level for some time now. While currently serving on a school board she, in 2020 she ran for Oregon Secretary of State and in 2018 she tried her luck for congress as well, this time in Oregon’s 2nd District, where Schader accused her of being a much more moderate version of herself to suit that district’s mores.

Now however, Skinner looks and acts the part of a Bernie level progressive, while no doubt deriving most of her sustenance as an attorney, she will more often highlight her work helping fight wildfires as an “Emergency Recovery Coordinator.” In tone she doesn’t sound as far left as she is and her ads are quite well produced and effective. She is all in on the enviro-nonsense of the left, has received the endorsement of pro abortion NARAL who called her an advocate for “criminal justice, racial justice… and reproductive rights.” She characterizes herself as pro worker and does seem sincere in her concern for the plight of the less fortunate. She does however seem to espouse a spend-your-way-out-of-problems philosophy of social change.

Skinners personal story is compelling and is no doubt her greatest strength. She was raised by a single mom and talks relatably about the struggles of growing up in that situation. She paid her way through college and law school, and speaks quite a bit about helping people during some of the wildfires.

The republican in this race is the impressive Lori Chavez-DeRemer. Lori was the mayor of the town of Happy Valley from 2010-2018, has been married 31 years to her husband and has garnered a fair amount of national endorsements for her race. Lori is Hispanic which should help her, more still however is her demeanor and experience, she was a successful mayor who kept taxes low, balanced the budget and created a surplus putting millions in reserve for her town. She characterizes herself as a “republican who gets stuff done.”

On the issues she is one of the most impressive we have seen in her ability to concisely frankly state her position and adeptly redirect questions aimed to be tough on republicans. She is both well versed on issues and disciplined while retaining the ability to sound like a normal person a rare feat in politics at this level.

On the cash battle, as of June 30th McLeod-Skinner holds a moderate advantage of $388,000 – $168,794. Skinner also spent $886,510 to take down the incumbent Schrader. While Chavez-DeRemer spent an even more striking $954,000 to make it through her primary in June. While Skinner is ahead DeRemer has proven in the heat of a primary she can outgun even a progressive darling like Skinner.

Both RealClear and Fox News list this race as a toss up and Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight actually give Chavez-DeRemer a slight advantage in their statistical modeling having her win in 53-100 models versus McLeod-Skinner getting the job done in only 47 of 100 models. Chavez-Deremer is a strong candidate, but McLeod-Skinner is formidable as well. DeRemer has greater and more robust experience and greater felicity with the issues, McLeod-Skinner has a great personal story and a decent relatability to her. DeRemer although has a tenacity to throw back democrat extreme charges back at them which should serve her exceptionally well against this opponent.

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