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The analyst carefully studied satellite images, calculated the numbers and came to a startling conclusion. Twenty-eight months of heavy fighting in Ukraine have radically changed the tank corps of the Russian army, writes Forbes.
The army has lost so many modern tanks that the only way it can even come close to maintaining its front-line strength of 3,000 tanks is to pull more 1960s-era T-62s out of long-term storage, the analyst of Forbes said.
"In my opinion, it is likely that we will see more T-62s in the future and they will probably be one of the main tank types in the Russian army," he wrote after comparing T-62 inventories with those of the older T-55 tanks and the newer T-72, T-80 and T-90.
The advantage of the 41-ton, four-man T-62s is that they are numerous and, compared with newer tanks, relatively simple, making them more economical to rebuild and repair after decades of open storage. The 103rd Armored Repair Plant in Siberia, along with other factories, "appear to have built up significant capacity to repair this type," the analyst noted.
It is argued that this transition - from modern T-72s, T-80s and T-90s to ageing T-62s - is an ominous sign for the Russian army as its attacks in Ukraine turn bloody.
The numbers show how the Russians got to this point. In February 2022, the Russian army entered the war in Ukraine with about 2,100 late-model T-72s, 500 modern T-80s, and 400 T-90s.
But Ukraine’s mines, drones, artillery, and anti-tank missiles have taken their toll. Analysts have counted 3,000 Russian tanks destroyed, abandoned, or captured. That’s the entire pre-war force, and the losses are disproportionately in modern tanks rather than the older T-55s and T-62s that the Russians began pulling out of open tank parks soon after the war escalated.
No one outside the Kremlin knows for sure how many new tanks Russian factories produce each year, but well-informed estimates put the number at between 500 and 600. That's not enough new tanks to replace all the tanks lost, so the balance is made up of old Cold War stockpiles.
In 2022, these stockpiles were significant. According to a study of satellite images, they included 6,200 tanks. The dominant types were 1,800 T-62s, 2,000 older T-72s, and 1,400 early-model T-80s.
Just over two years later, the Russians had brought in about 700 T-62s, 500 T-72s, and 1,100 T-80s for repairs. That they neglected about a thousand T-72 Urals and T-72As from the early 1970s may have something to do with the tanks' finicky autoloaders.
Stockpiles of T-80s and newer T-72s are running low, but there are still 1,100 T-62s waiting to be refurbished and given a second chance to fight. As production of new tanks continues to lag due to a lack of money, labor, and spare parts, these 1960s-era T-62s will play an increasingly important role in the Russian military in the mid-2020s.
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