The popular SCHD Dividend Stock ETF just increased their latest dividend distribution by 24%! However, is this dividend growth rate realistic? Today, I look at the numbers and analyze a more realistic look at the actual dividend growth rate that has occurred (and can possibly be expected going forward).
#dividend #etf #schd

0:00 INTRODUCTION: If everything goes according to plan, SCHD will become a Top 5-6 Core position for me.
0:25 Instant Dividend Stock Diversification
0:37 Only 30% overlap with my existing portfolio of 36 positions (37 positions with SCHD).
1:18 PPC IAN DIVIDEND PORTFOLIO OVERLAP ANALYSIS
1:27 29.09% Overlap, 70.91% Net New Positions
2:01 SCHD DIVIDEND DISTRIBUTION HISTORY ANALYSIS
2:13 The latest distribution was up 24% year-over-year, but let's have realistic expectations.
2:38 EXCEL ANALYSIS
2:58 The distributions fluctuate because the ETF holds 100 or so dividend stocks, that changes over time. Different stocks pay on different schedules.
3:33 Latest distribution vs. 1 year ago (24.0%) Don’t get so excited, we cannot look at just one quarter
4:09 Please connect with me on Twitter (X) and Instagram.
4:38 2024-to-date vs. 2023-to-date (13.8% dividend distribution growth)
5:51 My Strategy: I am utilizing SCHD to boost portfolio-wide dividend growth (enhance my long-term dividend yield on cost)
6:50 Last four distributions vs. prior four distributions (8.9% dividend distribution growth rate) - I believe this is a really realistic analysis for future possible dividend growth
7:39 Starting dividend yield is 3.67%
7:49 I'm buying because my yield-on-cost can go up over time
8:49 Dividend growth rates are slowing a bit these days, in this higher interest rate environment
10:00 2023 distributions vs. 2022 distributions (only 3.77%) - This was a very slow dividend growth period
11:00 It's important to be realistic with SCHD, the dividend may grow slowly during certain periods
11:14 5-Year Dividend Growth CAGR (12.9%) - Comparing last 4 quarters vs. comparable 4 quarters 5-years prior
12:30 Is 12.9% sustainable? Maybe if interest rates go down, again.
14:47 I'm personally thinking dividend growth will be around 8.9%, on average, but I'm hoping for higher.
15:23 PORTFOLIO OVERLAP ANALYSIS
15:35 SCHD METRICS ANALYSIS
16:25 I like to buy ETFs and stocks when they have not gone up a lot. I like out-of-favor, high-quality, value stocks.
17:40 TTM PE is 16.21, a fair value
17:56 Starting yield of 3.67%
18:07 Payout ratio of 59.5% (some room to grow dividend, but may indicate slower dividend growth)
19:41 DISCLOSURE AND DISCLAIMER

DISCLOSURE: I am long SCHD. I own this ETF in my personal dividend stock portfolio.

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