The Second Curve with Futurist Ian Morrison
Renowned futurist Ian Morrison delves into the concept of the 'Second Curve' - the idea of preparing for and navigating the unpredictable shifts in technological, consumer, and market trends. He shares his insights spanning decades, touching on specific examples such as the innovative strategies of IBM, Microsoft, and Apple, the fall of Kmart and rise of Walmart, and also the challenges companies like Pitney Bowes faced while trying to transition from the first to the second curve. Drawing from his book 'The Second Curve', he highlights the importance of striking the right balance in transitioning to new models without prematurely abandoning the benefits of the current path. The discussion also covers adapting to the changing nature of organisational structure, maintaining a strong corporate culture, and fostering a sense of individual resilience and flexibility to embrace future trends.
00:00 Introduction: The Dilemma of the Second Curve
00:57 The Journey of the Author: From Geographic Change to Futurism
04:40 The Genesis of the Second Curve Concept
05:41 The Challenges of Navigating the Second Curve
06:47 The Impact of Technological Change on Businesses
09:02 The Role of Forecasting in Navigating Change
11:29 The Pitney Bowes Case Study: Navigating the Second Curve
13:13 The Importance of Timing in Jumping to the Second Curve
13:48 The Role of Innovation in Business Survival
15:18 The Impact of External Changes on Business Strategies
17:06 The Challenges of Adapting to New Business Models
18:37 The Role of Emotional Intelligence and Flexibility in Navigating Change
21:39 The Pitney Bowes Story: A Lesson in Navigating the Second Curve
37:16 The Role of Culture in Navigating the Second Curve
50:15 Conclusion: The Future of the Second Curve
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