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⚠️⚠️⚠️#FederalReserve #Fed #Update ⚠️⚠️
The Fed JUST Warned us about a coming "Downward Spiral." Let's talk.
Here's the update last week:
The Federal Reserve JUST announced a massive change, a huge change we might not see for another 5 years. basically: The Fed is Pissed off because there are 4 things happening that are messing up the Fed’s plans. So the fed has decided to change their plans and these plans affect us and the future of our money. Now, let’s break it down. Okay, first, to understand what is going on you have to understand the following two things: 1) Some inflation is good. Some inflation makes it easier to pay off your debts and encourages investment. However, really high inflation is very bad because people who can’t invest or don’t have investment debt get really hurt - like people with credit card debt or less investments. So inflation is really a balance between what’s good for rich people and what’s bad for poor people. That’s why we usually hear that inflation at 2% is a fair balance for everyone. That’s because: 2) Deflation is very low inflation is bad. These things encourage saving and NOT investing. That’s not good for growing. In the 1970s, we faced a period of “Great Inflation” - basically, inflation was like 10-15% - which is really high - and interest rates were also around 10-15% - which meant your money become a bunch less valuable every year, it was expensive to borrow and invest, and poorer people became WAAAAY poorer. Back then, high yield savings accounts actually meant something - in 1975 a high yield savings account once paid 14.7%! But that didn’t mean much because inflation was over 15%. So you were really still losing money! Every time we had a recession in the past, we’d end up getting high inflation as a result after wards. That was bad.
Welcome to the 90s, we entered into a period known as the “Great Moderation” - basically times of low inflation. And even though countries and banks around the world want some inflation, most have failed to achieve any meaningful inflation. Today, in 2020, we now face 4 new problems. Problem #1: We may never grow like we used to. Growing is very important and in 2012, we thought we’d grow by at least 2.5% per year. Now, it’s estimated that our country’s economy may only grow by 1.8% per year. That’s very low and what’s worst: we’re increasing our productivity at a slower rate. Interest rate expectations are falling dramatically. We might never see the high rates we even saw in the last 2 decades. AKA, rates could keep trending downwards. This is actually a good thing: unemployment was at 50-year lows for about 2 years and more people are participating in the job market. BUT, the pandemic just robbed us of that. Economists text books say that when unemployment is really low, companies have to pay more money to find talent and workers. Well guess what? The textbooks were wrong. Here’s instead what the Fed is going to do to solve this issue. This means if inflation runs at 1% for a couple of years because of a recession or low productivity growth, the fed will allow inflation to go as high as 3% - rough example here, so that we get an AVERAGE of 2% inflation. This has huge consequences for stocks and real estate and the availability of cheap money, rising rates, and hyperinflation.
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