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Description:
Often we think of war and peace as binary states - one is either at war or at peace.
But history is full of examples of the line between those two states being blurred, and in a modern world of nuclear weapons and globalised economic and military competition, that competitive state between war and peace has grown particularly prominent.
When Russia overtook Crimea in 2014 with its "little green men" the world got a high visibility view of what a hybrid war, combining information warfare, unconventional methods and conventional military force might look like. Today, I want to give an overview of hybrid war methods, their potential, and potential defences against them.
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Caveats/comments:
As flagged in this video - the focus on Russian Hybrid war should not be taken as a claim that other countries do not have hybrid war capabilities
The discussion of commentary and writings on hybrid warfare in this presentation are, out of necessity, incomplete
Examples of phenomena like amplification are included for illustrative purposes only and all content within this presentation is presented primarily for entertainment purposes
For the avoidance of doubt, I am making no claims as to the intent, actions, influence, sympathies, or otherwise of any individual person or persons in this presentation (though I may refer to reporting by others on those topics)
Images may be unrelated to the text and audio presented
Sources & Reading:
Clark - Russian Hybrid Warfare
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Gearasimov - Presentation to the General Staff Academy 2018
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Gerasimov - Vectors in the development of military strategy
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JDN 1-19
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Kofman - Russian Hybrid Warfare and other dark arts
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Monaghan - The 'war' in Russia's Hybrid Warfare
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Hofman - Conflict in the 21st Century: the rise of hybrid wars
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The "Firehose of Falsehood" propaganda model
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Tucker featured by RT
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Derleth - Russian New Generation Warfighting
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Russia Cyber Threat Overview - CISA
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Russian military admits cyber war effort
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WHy Russian Cyber Dogs have mostly failed to bark
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Russian denial of operations in Ukraine
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Matisek - imagining the future of russian agression
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Russia on nuclear risk
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Little green men 2014
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The IRA, social media and political polarisation in the USA 2012-2018
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CSIS on Russia and Brexit
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Russian military and security periodicals
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Bulgarian blasts
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Wired reporting on cyberwar
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Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Open
00:01:37 — What Am I Talking About
00:03:03 — Sponsor: Ground News
00:04:09 — The Great Power Challenge
00:08:20 — Competition & Western Conception
00:13:51 — Russian Hybrid Warfare
00:22:13 — Cyberwarfare
00:26:09 — Proxy Use
00:29:43 — Ambiguity & Kinetic Operations
00:34:09 — Information Warfare
00:51:43 — Designing Hybrid Campaign
01:00:00 — Hybrid Warfare In Ua
01:08:21 — Countering Hybrid Warfare
01:12:40 — Conclusions
01:13:36 — Channel Update
