Leading candidates Larry Elder, Kevin Faulconer, and Kevin Kiley cite homelessness, crime, housing costs, and energy shortages as evidence that one-party rule is failing the Golden State.

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Gov. Gavin Newsom is in trouble, and he knows it.

"California and the values we profess would be judged in a different light if this was a successful recall," Newsom, who's facing a recall vote on September 14, told the editorial board of the Sacramento Bee in a taped interview. "I think it would have profound consequences."

Newsom's concerns are well-founded, according to recent polls, most of which currently are projecting a narrow victory for Newsom.

Because of the COVID-19 pandemic, the state has mailed every eligible California voter a ballot with two questions on it: "Shall Gavin Newsom be recalled from the office of governor," and which of 46 candidates should replace him if that were to happen? If the recall succeeds, whichever candidate receives the plurality of votes will replace Newsom until the next governor's race in 2022.

(Reason extended interview requests to all of the leading candidates in the race. Larry Elder, Kevin Faulconer, and Kevin Kiley agreed to be interviewed. The others declined or didn't respond to our requests.)

Newsom and his Democratic allies have portrayed the election as a right-wing plot to take over California's government, pointing to substantial funding from the California GOP and Mike Huckabee's political action committee and running ads connecting some of the pro-recall activists to QAnon and the Trump supporters who sieged the U.S. Capitol on January 6.

But what's actually animating likely recall voters are issues like rising homelessness, high housing and energy costs, fear of rising crime, and pandemic policies that have little basis in science, like closing beaches, banning outdoor dining, and keeping in-person public schools shut longer than any other state.

The recall should be just as big of a wake-up call to the Democratic political establishment due to the fact that California recently lost a congressional seat for the first time in its history.

Produced by Zach Weissmueller; camera by Dillon Mortenson; graphics by Calvin Tran

Photos: JOHN WALKER/TNS/Newscom; Kyodo/Newscom; Sam Hodgson/ZUMAPRESS/Newscom; Li Jianguo / Xinhua News Agency/Newscom; Paul Kitagaki Jr./ZUMAPRESS/Newscom; Alex Edelman - CNP/CNP / Polaris/Newscom; Lawrence Jackson/ZUMA Press/Newscom; Orin Louis/ZUMA Press/Newscom; Lev Radin/Sipa USA/Newscom; Ren E C. Byer/ZUMA Press/Newscom; Terry Pierson/ZUMA Press/Newscom; Image of Sport/Newscom; Ryan Grothe / MEGA / Newscom/RGSAN2/Newscom; Daniel Kim/ZUMAPRESS/Newscom; Ana Ramirez/ZUMAPRESS/Newscom; Frank Worth/ZUMA Press/Newscom; ANA VENEGAS/KRT/Newscom; Paul Kitagaki Jr./ZUMA Press/Newscom; Ron Adar/ZUMAPRESS/Newscom; Daniel Kim/ZUMAPRESS/Newscom; David Brooks/ZUMA Press/Newscom; John Gastaldo/ZUMA Press/Newscom; Sandy Huffaker/ZUMA Press/Newscom; Nelvin C. Cepeda/ZUMAPRESS/Newscom; Jill Connelly/ZUMAPRESS/Newscom;  K.C. Alfred/ZUMAPRESS/Newscom; Paul Kitagaki Jr./ZUMAPRESS/Newscom; Watchara Phomicinda/ZUMAPRESS/Newscom; Watchara Phomicinda/ZUMAPRESS/Newscom; DAI SUGANO/KRT/Newscom; NADER KHOURI/KRT/Newscom; Watchara Phomicinda/ZUMAPRESS/Newscom;  Sarah Silbiger / Pool via CNP / SplashNews/Newscom; Prentice C. James/Cal Sport Media/Newscom; Lindsey Nicholson/Education Images/Universal Images Group/Newscom; BILL GREENBLATT/UPI/Newscom; Danita Delimont Photography/Newscom; Ringo Chiu/ZUMA Press/Newscom; POOL/REUTERS/Newscom; MIKE BLAKE/REUTERS/Newscom; Álex Segura/EFE/Newscom; Kevin Sullivan/ZUMA Press/Newscom; MIKE BLAKE/REUTERS/Newscom.

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